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اولین مقاله مستخرج از رساله: A Survey on Integral Futures Studies Capacity to Overcome the Challenge of Meeting Future Water Resources for Food Production at the National Level in Iran

با سپاس از درگاه الهی بابت توفیقاتی که در مسیر اجرای این مطالعه برای بنده فراهم نمود ، در ادامه خلاصه فارسی و لاتین اولین مقاله مستخرج از پایان نامه که به زبان لاتین منتشر شده، تقدیم می شود.

 

 

 

 

خلاصه فارسی مقاله:

 

عنوان: پیمایشی بر ظرفیت آینده پژوهی یکپارچه برای غلبه بر چالش مواجهه با آینده تأمین منابع آب جهت تولید غذا در سطح ملی در جمهوری اسلامی ایران

 

نویسندگان : 1-سید علی‌اکبر عظیمی دزفولی،2- عبدالرضا رکن‌الدین افتخاری،3- قدیر نظامی پور،4- اوا هایدج

 

1- دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، تهران، ایران
2- استاد رشته برنامه‌ریزی جغرافیایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ج.ا. ایران
3- دکتری مدیریت راهبردی، استادیار دانشگاه دفاع ملی، تهران، ج.ا. ایران
4- استاد رشته آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه کوروینوس، بوداپست، مجارستان

طرح مسئله:

امروزه مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب ( IWRM ) و مدیریت سازگار منابع آب (AD ) به عنوان رویکردهایی جهانی برای فائق آمدن بر چالش‌های توزیع منابع آب مطرح هستند. مطالعه¬ی آینده تأمین آب جهت تولید غذا متناسب با بافت مفهومی این رویکردهای مدیریت منابع آب مستلزم نزدیک کردن دیدگاه‌های پراکنده ذی‌نفعان مختلف، ارتقای یادگیری، تقویت هم¬رأیی آن‌ها در خصوص علایق آینده و منافع ملی و بازنگری تعهد آن‌ها نسبت به حفظ و مدیریت منابع آب، است. بنا بر ویژگی‌های اساسی IFS، این رویکرد آینده پژوهی می‌تواند به عنوان پارادایمی مناسب برای غلبه بر چالش کمبود منابع آب و تولید غذا در سطح ملی موردتوجه قرار گیرد.

 

هدف:

واکاوی چالش کمبود آب در کنار ضرورت تولید غذای کافی، مستلزم بهره‌گیری از رویکردی مناسب از آینده‌پژوهی است. در این مقاله، ضمن معرفی آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه مطلوبیت کاربست آن برای مطالعه آینده‌های تأمین آب جهت تولید غذا مورد ارزیابی قرارگرفته است.

 

روش:

بکارگیری روش شناسی آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه با فرآیند آینده‌نگاری، بازتعریف شده و به منظور یک گفتگوی ساخت‌یافته معطوف به آینده میان نمایندگان ذی‌نفعان اصلی تأمین آب و تولید گندم ایران با شیوه کارگاه مجازی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. مرحله اول آینده نگاری (پیش آینده نگاری) 6 ماه ادامه داشت، 105 ذی نفع ملی برای گفتگوی برخط، پیمایش و ارزیابی دیدگاه ها درباره دلایل تأکید بر تولید داخلی گندم و برنامه‌ها و روندهای آینده در کارگاه مجازی مشارکت نمودند. در طول این مرحله بخش‌هایی از دانش عینی و ذهنی در یک منظومه شناختی فهم آینده فراهم آمدند. در ادامه 36 نفر برای قضاوت درباره حصول نتایج فرآیندی آینده نگاری (5C) در مرحله پیش آینده نگاری داوطلب شدند.

 

نتایج:

در مسیر اجرای مطالعه، انتظار بر این بود که فراتر از برخی نتایج اختصاصی، نتایج فرآیندی آینده نگاری تأییدکننده هدف پارادایم آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه برای مدیریت آب و تولید غذای ملی باشد. دراین چارچوب ،نتایج ارزیابی معیارهای مزبور توسط مشارکت‌کنندگان در مقاله به‌قرار زیر است: 1- ارتقای تفکر درباره آینده (91%)؛ 2- شفاف شدن عوامل مؤثر بر موضوع (88%)؛ 3- ارتقای تفکر منظومه ای (91%)؛ 4- شکل گیری شبکه های اجتماعی جدید (78%)؛ 5- ارتقای یادگیری اجتماعی پیرامون موضوع مطالعه (89%)؛ 6- ارتقای همکاری میان مشارکت‌کنندگان (72%) و 7- ارتقای هم رأیی میان ذی نفعان (75%).

نهایتا می توان گفت، کارگاه مجازی در حکم یک فرآیند مبتنی بر ویژگی‌های IFS، می‌تواند منجر به ارتقای یک گفتگوی ساخت یافته، عمیق، پیوسته و معطوف به آینده میان ذی‌نفعان اصلی سراسر کشور، برای گذار از چالش کمبود آب و تولید غذا در سراسر کشور فراهم آورد.

 

 

 خلاصه انگلیسی مقاله:

 

Abstract 

Purpose: Coping water scarcity and food production in Iran require some appropriate Futures Studies (FS) paradigm. Integral Futures Studies (IFS) is applied and examined for studying the futures of water supply for food production in I. R. of Iran

 

Methods

Virtual workshop, as a web based foresight procedure, is developed and implemented according to IFS circumstances for a future based structured social dialogue, among Iranian stakeholders. The first phase of the foresight procedure (pre-foresight) lasted 6 months, 105 national stakeholders were registered to take part in online discussions, surveys, and workshops, and to share their ideas and opinions on future agendas and trends. During this phase, the objective and subjective parts of the knowledge on shaping the future were integrated into one system. Finally 36 volunteers evaluated the pre-foresight

 

Results

IWRM and AM are some global approaches to solve the water allocation challenges at watershed or national levels. Under such circumstances future studies needs to bring closer divergent views, promote understandings, and interests; strengthen their consensus on the future interests and benefits of the nation, and renew their commitment to the preservation and management of water resources. So IFS could regard as a more suitable paradigm through coping water challenges for food production at national level. Behind some special results, procedure results (5C) of this study were examined. The percentages of participants consensus on the effectiveness of the examined issues were as follows: 1) Promoting thinking about the future (91%); 2) Clarifying the effective factors (88%); 3) Promoting thinking systematically (91%); 4) Forming new networks and communications (78%); 5) Promoting social learning about the subject of the study (89%); 6) Promoting cooperation among the participants (72%); and 7)  Promoting consensus among the relevant stakeholders 75%

 

Conclusion 

Finally, virtual workshop as a web based procedure and according to IFS circumstances, could promote a deep and continual structured and future oriented dialogue among the relevant stakeholders across the country for copingwater challenges for food production at national level

 

عزیزانی که علاقه مند به مرور آن هستند می توانند به آدرس : 

 

Ali Akbar Azimi Dezfuli, Abdoreza Roknoddin Eftekhari, Ghadir Nezamipur, Eva Hideg (2017)  A Survey on Integral Futures Studies Capacity to Overcome the Challenge of Meeting Future Water Resources for Food Production at the National Level in Iran, Journal of Sustainable Rural Development, 1(1), 51-66.

http://www.jsrd.ir/article_46040_a3927710dea6e3ffa1de2941f229c31b.pdf

مراجعه فرمایند . 

در این مقاله دلایل استفاده از آینده پژوهی یکپارچه در بررسی آینده آب و غذای جمهوری اسلامی ایران ; بحث و بررسی شده است . 

 

گروه انسان-آب-غذا:  https://telegram.me/joinchat/BzL2LD5msMHrZth5auaa-g
پايگاه آينده پژوهي تأمين آب جهت توليد گندم : www.msfs.ir

 

 

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